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condo not for rent
Tuesday, June 19 2001
Why do cycles of prosperity and famine pulse through our economy with unpredictable regularity? This is a question economists have grappled with for years, but no one seems to have the answer. Indeed, there are always those who are willing to celebrate the end to cyclical downturns whenever conditions remain good for a time. Remember how, as recently as this summer, the dawning of the information age was supposed to bring about a frictionless economy devoid of all the economic nastiness relict from the industrial/agricultural age?
Well now we know better. The frantic irrationality of the dotcom bubble was merely a consequence of the sudden poor-allocation and depletion of private America's varied investments. What just happened, that high we felt in 1999, was as ephemeral and ersatz as the joy and empathy one feels while under the influence of ecstasy. If America's liquid assets were serotonin, then the dotcom investment craze was ecstasy. And now it's the day after and we're grumpy and bitter.
Most of the cycles in the economy have causes that can be readily identified in retrospect. For example, the demilitarization associated with the fall of the Berlin Wall was almost certainly the source of the recession of the early 90s, especially in places like Southern California. Similarly, the end of the Vietnam War and problems in the Middle East probably had a lot to do with the economic troubles of the late 70s.
I think the market crash of 1929 is the closest analogue to the problems affecting the economy today. In both cases, the crash seems to be a result of the abrupt depletion of investment capability. There's a glut of Palm Pilots on Ebay and people are using Aeron chairs for lawn furniture in San Francisco, but nobody wants to buy stuff, travel, advertise or hire. People are talking about "when things turn around" but I see nothing in the economy to break the downward spiral. Compounding the problem, no one can think up an application demanding enough to justify another generation of computer hardware purchasing.
The other day I was riding down the alley just south of Santa Monica Blvd., approaching Centinela from the west, and I found myself thinking, "What is the evolutionary basis for the cultural impulse to make sex into a taboo issue?" Obviously this taboo must be serving an important function in society or it wouldn't be there. What would happen in a world in which people were completely open about their sexuality, even teaching their kids that sex was a natural, healthy thing to contemplate? I couldn't immediately think of anything bad that would happen. Indeed, it seemed to me that there would be considerably fewer neuroses in such a society. People would be well-adjusted and have a healthy appetite for conventional sexual stimuli instead of, say, masturbating into stiletto-heeled shoes or requiring a beating in order to reach orgasm.
But our society, Western Monotheistic Society, the society that has swept the globe and chased more sexually permissive societies into the mountains and swamps, regards sex as a necessary evil, a dark secret that must be shielded from children and never broached in polite company. Perhaps this says something about the effect of sexual behavior on individuals in over-populated agricultural areas (the places where Western Society began). Sexual flamboyance in such situations is somewhat akin to bragging. It might well be destabilizing for society. If someone who ain't gettin' any is constantly exposed to his neighbor fucking his beautiful wife in the front lawn, he might well be driven to murderous envy. As an irrational motivator, sex drive can be that powerful. Altercations of this sort wouldn't have to happen very often before society would feel the need to repress sexuality in order to maintain civility.
For the past couple weeks on KCRW, Nic Harcourt has been playing a peppy little Middle Eastern-styled contemporary dance tune whose lyrics, though sung in a foreign language, sound like this:
Check us out I'm moving the Audi!
(unknown lyrics) -dmucka shucka tarry-
My pony drove the Audi.
The song seemed especially fitting back when my housemate John had a spare Audi in the basement. He finally got rid of it a little over a week ago. Now, out there somewhere on the streets of Los Angeles, a nice Korean girl has that status car she's been craving ever since she was old enough to know the smell of success.
Speaking of John, today he was in full retreat from the idea of moving to New York. For John, this sudden case of cold feet was nothing unusual. Yesterday he was full of reasons to move to New York. Today he was full of reasons not to. In New York there would be no pay for the first three months. In New York, he'd be staying at his older sister's place in a house with a squalling infant nephew. And it wouldn't even be New York, it would be Hoboken. If he stays here, on the other hand, John will be nearly within walking distance to the Santa Monica school that is poised to hire him. "And there are lots of attractive female teachers there."
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